SK hynix Grew Revenue 214% and Lost 14 Points of DRAM Share
Counterpoint Research's Q2 2026 memory share data arrived in two pieces this week: the DRAM table went up on its public page on September 1, and the HBM chart reached Korean press on September 3 (it is not yet on Counterpoint's site). Read together, they show the same two companies moving in opposite directions. SK hynix grew DRAM revenue 214% year on year and still lost 14 points of share. Samsung added 12 points of HBM share in a single quarter.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. HBM, Q2 2026: SK hynix 50% (58% in Q1), Samsung 33% (21%), Micron 18% (21%). The SK hynix–Samsung gap went from 37 to 17 points in one quarter.
2. DRAM, Q2 2026: Samsung 38%, SK hynix 25%, Micron 24%, CXMT 10%. SK hynix is down from 39% a year ago even as its revenue rose 214%.
3. Counterpoint published two Q2 DRAM tables a month apart. CXMT moved from 7% to 10% between them. Check which version a headline is quoting.
What Counterpoint published, and what it did not
Both charts are revenue share, sourced to Counterpoint's "Memory Tracker and Forecast, Q2 2026." The five-quarter tables below are transcribed from the September 1 page (DRAM) and the September 3 chart (HBM).
| DRAM revenue share | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 33% | 33% | 36% | 38% | 38% |
| SK hynix | 39% | 33% | 32% | 29% | 25% |
| Micron | 22% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 24% |
| CXMT | 4% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
| Nanya | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| HBM revenue share | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix | 64% | 56% | 57% | 58% | 50% |
| Samsung | 15% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 33% |
| Micron | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 18% |
Two versions of the same quarter. On August 4 Counterpoint issued a press release from its Global Memory Tracker with Q2 DRAM share at Samsung 39%, SK hynix 26%, Micron 25%, CXMT 7%. The September 1 update reads 38%, 25%, 24%, 10%. The big three each lost a point; CXMT gained three. Coverage from early August uses the first set, coverage this week uses the second, and Counterpoint has not annotated the change. This post uses the September figures throughout.
Micron's year-ago HBM number. Some reports put Micron's Q2 2025 HBM share at 15%. On the chart, 15% is Samsung; Micron was 21%, and stayed at 21% for four consecutive quarters before dropping to 18% in Q2 2026.
Big-three sum. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron add to 87% in Q2 2026, down from 94% a year earlier (33+39+22). Nearly all of the 7 points went to CXMT (4% to 10%). Each figure is rounded, so treat the sums as approximate: the three HBM shares add to 101%.
"First to mass-produce HBM4." That is Samsung's own language. Counterpoint's wording is narrower: Samsung is "the first supplier of HBM4 to NVIDIA," most Q2 HBM revenue still came from HBM3E, and HBM4 shipments become material in the second half.
Revenue share is price times mix
Counterpoint puts Q2 2026 DRAM market revenue up 57% quarter on quarter and 385% year on year. Within that, conventional DRAM prices surged sequentially while the average HBM price fell year on year, dragged by HBM3E price declines and the delayed HBM4 launch. When the pie grows that fast in one segment and stalls in another, revenue share migrates toward whoever sells more of the segment that repriced. It says little about who shipped more bits.
Counterpoint's research director MS Hwang gave two reasons for SK hynix's slide. First, SK hynix has the largest HBM share of shipments and revenue, so it took the biggest hit from lower average HBM prices. Second, SK hynix signed long-term agreements (LTAs) earlier than competitors, and LTAs set price ceilings and floors around a fixed contract price. Contracts negotiated early in a rising market lock in below spot. Record revenue plus falling share is what those two forces produce together.
The analyst's caveat: revenue share is not bit share. Counterpoint tracks bits as well, but that data is behind the paywall. Reading "SK hynix lost volume" off this table alone overreaches.
Samsung's 12-point HBM jump, as far as public data goes
Samsung's HBM share stepped from 15% to 23% between Q2 and Q3 2025, sat at 21–23% for three quarters, then stepped again to 33%. Since Counterpoint says most Q2 HBM revenue was HBM3E, the bulk of the 12 points is best read as HBM3E volume. How much early HBM4 contributed is not disclosed anywhere public.
The size of the HBM pie matters here. If average HBM prices fell year on year, HBM market revenue almost certainly grew slower than conventional DRAM. A 12-point move inside a slow-growing pie is more of a volume shift than the moves in the overall DRAM table, which are heavily price-driven. Micron fits the same pattern: DRAM revenue up roughly fivefold in a year, yet HBM share down from 21% to 18%.
CXMT at 10%: the number that moved most
CXMT went from 4% to 10% of DRAM revenue in a year. Per the August 4 release, its revenue grew 716% year on year (Nanya's grew 690%), on domestic conventional DRAM demand and added capacity. Counterpoint flagged CXMT's recent IPO as the thing to watch in the second half, specifically whether the proceeds fund HBM and LPDDR6 capacity.
It is also the least stable figure in this dataset. The same firm published 7% and 10% for the same quarter a month apart, which tells you how wide the error bars on Chinese vendor revenue estimates are. Take the direction. Do not take the decimal.
Two gaps, one cause
In HBM, SK hynix's lead over Samsung shrank from 49 to 17 points. In total DRAM, Samsung went from 6 points behind SK hynix to 13 ahead. Both lines bent in Q2 for the same reasons: conventional DRAM repricing, HBM3E price erosion and LTA structure. A large part of this quarter's share shift is a pricing-regime effect. Counterpoint expects HBM prices to rise next year, lagging the conventional DRAM increases, and when that happens the force reverses.
What I actually watch
| Checkpoint | Why | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 HBM4 mix shift | Counterpoint says Vera Rubin and MI455X rack shipments lift HBM4 mix from Q3 and narrow the HBM price decline. Does SK hynix hold 50%? Does Samsung move above 33%? | Counterpoint Q3 tables (early November, if the cadence holds) |
| LTA reset timing | When SK hynix's earlier LTA ceilings roll off, its revenue share gap should narrow | SK hynix IR |
| Micron vs SK hynix for No. 2 | 25% vs 24%. Counterpoint's Neil Shah expects Micron to take second place soon | Micron FQ4 (Jun–Aug) results; Counterpoint Q3 |
| CXMT revision | Does Q2 CXMT stay at 10% in the Q3 update? Does TrendForce agree on direction? | Counterpoint, TrendForce |
Value chain read-through
| Segment | What this table says | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | Conventional DRAM pricing tailwind plus 33% HBM | HBM4 revenue mix in Q3 IR |
| SK hynix | Record revenue, falling share; LTA and HBM3E pricing structure | LTA renewal timing, HBM4 ASP |
| Micron | DRAM revenue ~5x, one point from No. 2 | FQ4 DRAM revenue and HBM commentary |
| CXMT | 4% to 10%, wide estimate error | IPO proceeds use; LPDDR6 and HBM capacity filings |
| Back-end equipment and materials | HBM volume shifting between vendors shifts bonder and materials orders | Second-half order disclosures from Samsung's supply chain |
Risks to this view
• Revenue share flips with pricing regimes. If HBM prices rebound in 2027 as Counterpoint expects, part of this quarter's shift reverses.
• These are Counterpoint estimates, not company disclosures. A one-month revision is documented in this very post.
• Micron's fiscal quarters do not align with calendar quarters. Counterpoint's calendarization method is not disclosed, so Micron's numbers carry extra mapping uncertainty.
• Rounding. The Q2 HBM shares sum to 101%.
The headline this week is "Samsung HBM 33%." Laid over the DRAM table, it reads more like a pricing-and-contract story than a volume story. I will revisit once the Q3 tables show whether the HBM4 mix actually shifted.
Sources: Counterpoint Research, "Global DRAM and HBM Market Share: Quarterly" (updated Sep 1, 2026); Counterpoint Research press release "AI Demand Reshapes DRAM Rankings in Q2 2026" (Aug 4, 2026); Counterpoint Q2 2026 HBM share chart as distributed to Korean press (Sep 3, 2026); Hankyung, Asia Economy, eToday, Newstomato (Sep 3, 2026). Everything here is from public sources.
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